Month: January 2014

I had a spike in viewership today, alerted by my stats facility, and I discovered that someone had linked yesterday’s post in the Etiquette Hell forums.

Welcome everyone! Enjoy the visit.

Some of you reading this may disagree on the amusement aspect of the described events, but let me emphasize up front that the parties involved made/make every effort to discourage people from unsafe decisions.

I live in a neighborhood that looks like this when it snows. We don’t get snow very often here in the northern Atlanta suburb that is Cobb County. When we do, you wait for it to melt. There aren’t enough snow treatment equipment to deal with every secondary and tertiary road out there. That’s just a fact of the budgetary process and the likelihood of winter storms around here.

Just up the road, the road I and Jenn would normally use to get home, there’s a hill. Here’s the view from the top.

It’s steep and you don’t want to be using it during an ice condition. That doesn’t stop everyone. When I got home on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning from my 15 hour commute, I passed near this hill and saw around eight cars piled into ditches on it. Here’s the view from the bottom on Wednesday evening after some cleanup had occurred.

Where does the neighborhood amusement come in? At the top of the hill, the local homeowners come out when it gets like this and put up cones and signs that say, in no uncertain terms, DO NOT USE THIS HILL. They also stand out there and tell people to not do it. They invite people to walk to the top of the hill and look before deciding to go. There is, after all, other ways to get down to the bottom of the hill. I used one of those alternate routes on Wednesday morning. But, just because people are warned repeatedly doesn’t mean they won’t try it anyhow. So they have a block party, to watch kids sled on the other hills, and to see if people will do stupid things (like use that hill).

After someone crashes, they go help out.

I don’t know about you, but even if I were determined to get down that hill, if I saw a bunch of people standing around with hot chocolate and beers, anxiously anticipating my decision, watching for me to do something, I’d probably think twice about my decision.

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Yes, I meant it when I said it took me 15 hours to get home on Tuesday/Wednesday. If you haven’t followed the news, read here or just do a google search.

Yesterday Griffin crawled for the first time. At least, by our definition of crawling. He’s been commando crawling a.k.a. “naga-ing” for a week now. Our crawling threshold was “two repeats of hand-foot, hand-foot” movement. He did that yesterday.

Run for the hills! It’s time to baby-proof the house.

Update: Whoops. I put the embed link on the wsywig editor. That doesn’t work. Fixed now.

We’ve been having fun with a monthly movie night at our place for the past while. It’s a good opportunity to have friends over and watch various “classic” ((Our rule for the definition of “classic” is that the movie must be old enough to run for president.)) movies or movies that everyone should see. So far, over the course of a year, we’ve watched:

• Vertigo
• The Godfather
• Dr. Strangelove
• Bringing up Baby
• The Day the Earth Stood Still
• Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs
• Double feature of The Italian Job and the Thomas Crown Affair ((With a Triple Feature because both of those movies had such terrible endings, we watched the remake of the Thomas Crown Affair with Rene Russo and Pierce Brosnan, just so we could watch an ending.))
• An American in Paris
• Nosferatu ((By the way, if you watch Nosferatu, make sure to get the digitally fixed and remastered version. The one that’s on Neflix and Amazon Prime will give you motion sickness.))
• Mr. Smith Goes to Washington
• Miracle on 34th St. with a special edition of Emmett Otter’s Jug Band Christmas
• Breakfast at Tiffany’s

These have been themed about half the time. For example, with Griffin coming due in July, Snow White was deemed appropriate for an early-childhood-memory food theme. For Breakfast at Tiffany’s we did breakfast food and PJs. For An American in Paris, we did French food.

Unfortunately, speaking for myself and not being into the Scholarship of Cinema, I’ve disliked several of these films. Vertigo got a thumb down from me and Bringing up Baby made me want to strangle Katherine Hepburn so she would just. Shut. Up!

After watching Snow White for the first time since childhood I realized that that movie is kinda crazy. There’s all this buildup and then it just skips to the end with the prince. What the hell?

I’ve already mentioned that The Italian Job and The Thomas Crowne Affair got universal panning from the people who viewed it with me. It’s like the director of The Italian Job was on speed while the director of The Thomas Crowne Affair was on downers. Neither movie made a whole lot of sense to my modern movie sensibilities.

And I just tweeted the other day about Breakfast at Tiffany’s.

We watched Breakfast at Tiffany’s last night and I was shocked (truly) by Mickey Rooney’s 1961 depiction of the Japanese neighbor. Racist^3.

— Bill Ruhsam (@bruhsam) January 7, 2014

I also kept wanting the guy in Breakfast at Tiffany’s to get a life and move on and don’t mess around with this obviously broken woman. I was done with her when she kicked the cat out of the car.

However, we’re not watching these necessarily because we expect to like them. We are watching to experience some old movies with friends and have something to talk about while eating and having fun.

Next month is The African Queen, which I happen to know I like. I’m looking forward to it.

The 40 most dangerous days of the year are about to start. The Georgia General Assembly is back in session this coming Monday, January 13, 2014.

It will be a short 40 days this year, however, because the primaries are on May 14, 2014.  Why does that matter? Because this is an election year and the legislators cannot raise money while the Legislature is in session. All state senators and representatives in Georgia serve two-year terms so they’re all up for reelection. That also includes Governor Deal and his likely main opponent State Senator Jason Carter this year.

The legislative session is always longer than a strict 40-weekday schedule would have it because there are recesses for budget negotiations and for other issues. I think last year the session ended on March 28, 2013 (Sine Die) which was 53 weekdays after the start.

I don’t expect much out of this session. No one will want to introduce any controversial legislation in an election year. Governor Deal certainly is not going to tackle any thorny topics like transportation funding. I imagine that ethics will be discussed and maybe even acted upon, with Senator Balfour’s sterling example still staring them in the face.

I haven’t looked at the prefiled bills yet, to know what fun things are waiting to die in committee, but I happen to know, and am delighted to share with you, that the Georgia General Assembly operates on a two-year basis. Any bill that wasn’t voted down last year is still alive an available for resurrection. Mostly that doesn’t mean anything; lots of bills get filed and go nowhere, but some have traction and just don’t get the muscle to be passed before the session runs out. I have to go review what’s sitting around from 2013.

We’ll see what our legislators have in mind for us this year come the next few weeks.

1-9-14 Update: After my above passive bashing State Senator Don Balfour, he had an interview in which he promised to do better and that he might be interested in criminal justice reform. I find this to be a clear line of bullshit, but he’s not my state senator. If he gets reelected by his constituency…well that says something about his portion of Gwinnett County. If he is given any positions of power in the Senate this legislative session I will be deeply disappointed in this GOP party. His actions, while perhaps not jailable offenses, are clearly unethical by a Christian definition of ethics, a standard to which almost every GOP lawmaker here in Georgia is proud to cling.

I took a stroll through the Marietta National Military Cemetery on Saturday morning. This cemetery, located in the heart of historic Marietta, was created to bury approximately 10,000 Union dead from General Sherman’s Army of the Tennessee. Immediately after the Civil War, the owner of the property, Henry Cole, wanted to use it to co-bury both Union and Confederate dead as a way to help heal the differences. Apparently, that idea didn’t fly. Instead it became a US National Cemetery and now has almost 19,000 graves within its boundaries. The cemetery contains two recipients of the Medal of Honor, as well as several monuments and memorials dedicated to various things. It is worth a visit to see the grounds and the resting place of so many military dead and their families. All of the pictures I took are at their Flickr set, but here are a few notable ones.

The majority of the headstones in the cemetery are what I would consider “normal” military gravestones. However there were a few graves that had been replaced by other styles. These stood out.

During the holiday season, wreaths are placed/allowed-to-be-placed on the headstones.

From http://www.history.army.mil/moh/civilwar_af.html#BUCKLEYD
BUCKLEY, DENNIS
Rank and organization: Private, Company G, 136th New York Infantry
Place and date: At Peach Tree Creek, Ga., 20 July 1864
Entered service at: Avon, N.Y.
Date of issue: 7 April 1865
Citation: Capture of flag of 31st Mississippi (C.S.A.).

From http://www.history.army.mil/moh/koreanwar.html#PHILLIPS
*PHILLIPS, LEE H. (ed. note: The * indicates that Cpl Phillips was killed in action.)
Rank and organization: Corporal, U.S. Marine Corps, Company E, 2d Battalion, 7 Marines, 1st Marine Division (Rein.).
Place and date: Korea, 4 November 1950.
Entered service at: Ben Hill, Ga.
Cpl. Phillips was killed in action 27 November 1950.
Citation: For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty while serving as a squad leader of Company E, in action against enemy aggressor forces. Assuming the point position in the attack against a strongly defended and well-entrenched numerically superior enemy force occupying a vital hill position which had been unsuccessfully assaulted on 5 separate occasions by units of the Marine Corps and other friendly forces, Cpl. Phillips fearlessly led his men in a bayonet charge up the precipitous slope under a deadly hail of hostile mortar, small-arms, and machine gun fire. Quickly rallying his squad when it was pinned down by a heavy and accurate mortar barrage, he continued to lead his men through the bombarded area and, although only 5 members were left in the casualty ridden unit, gained the military crest of the hill where he was immediately subjected to an enemy counterattack. Although greatly outnumbered by an estimated enemy squad, Cpl. Phillips boldly engaged the hostile force with handgrenades and rifle fire and, exhorting his gallant group of marines to follow him, stormed forward to completely overwhelm the enemy. With only 3 men now left in his squad, he proceeded to spearhead an assault on the last remaining strongpoint which was defended by 4 of the enemy on a rocky and almost inaccessible portion of the hill position. Using 1 hand to climb up the extremely hazardous precipice, he hurled grenades with the other and, with 2 remaining comrades, succeeded in annihilating the pocket of resistance and in consolidating the position. Immediately subjected to a sharp counterattack by an estimated enemy squad, he skillfully directed the fire of his men and employed his own weapon with deadly effectiveness to repulse the numerically superior hostile force. By his valiant leadership, indomitable fighting spirit and resolute determination in the face of heavy odds, Cpl. Phillips served to inspire all who observed him and was directly responsible for the destruction of the enemy stronghold. His great personal valor reflects the highest credit upon himself and enhances and sustains the finest traditions of the U.S. Naval Service.

And of course, these photo strolls are an opportunity to see what pictures come from serendipity.

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A couple weeks ago, Jenn texted me at work and asked if I’d heard that the traffic on SR 400 had increased by 30% after the tolls came down. Apparently one of her co-workers had heard that number recently and wanted to know if it was true.

I had not heard, but I have resources and I could find out.

First off, some background for those of you not native to the area. SR 400 is an fully-access-controlled expressway (interstate, without being an interstate) that was built with bonds that were paid off by tolls on the roadway. SR 400 is a critical north/south link to the northern Atlanta suburbs and some of the most prodigious economic centers including Buckhead, Perimeter, and bedroom communities to the north. It is highly congested at and north of the I-285 junction and is pretty damn congested south of there. The map here shows the location of the toll and SR 400’s position in the Atlanta arterial system.

On November 22, 2013, the last toll was paid and the toll booths were shut off. What’s happened since then? Hard to tell, really. I mean, it’s only been a couple months and we had two major holidays in there. It’s difficult to get a clear picture. However, I’ll state that so far, traffic has increased by about 7% daily and 23% if you look at the correct hour.

But, Bill! Just tell me how much traffic has increased so I can have a news blurb.

It’s not that simple. Here, I’ll show you why. From here on in, this is exceptionally tl;dr ((Too Long, Didn’t Read.)) for people who aren’t nerdy about data. You are warned. We are descending into the depths of data analysis, why traffic data is hard to look at, and squishy numbers and assumptions.

First a graph. This graph tells you what I just told you. ((Although the precise values of 7% and 23% I pulled off of the data table, which I have helpfully not supplied here)).

What is all this? This is the change in traffic volume at a point north of the tolls but south of I-285 after the tolls came down. This shows how a particular hour of the day, going from midnight on the left side of the graph to the following midnight on the right side of the graph, has changed. The big lines show the magnitude of the change with one being the northbound side of SR 400 and the other being southbound. The bar graph underneath them shows the percent difference of each hour compared to that hour prior to the tolls being shut off. Just by scanning the bar graphs, you can see that the 7% increase is about right and the peak change is about 23% around 5:00 and 7:00 AM. The biggest surprise to me, however, was the significant drop in volume, northbound, during the 5:00, 6:00, and 7:00 PM hours. What the hell? Traffic actually dropped after the tolls came down? Especially during what is colloquially termed “Evening Peak Hour” and also colloquially called “Traffic Hell”?

Yes, apparently it did.

However, and we’re going to sideslip into the lesson of “It’s easy to lie or obfuscate with graphs”, this graph doesn’t actually tell you very much. You could draw all sorts of conclusions from this, but without knowing how I generated it, or comparing it to a similar set of data, I could easily mislead you into a false premise that would have you running around in circles. Lets look at another graph.

This graphic shows the average daily traffic over the whole of 2013 compared to the average daily traffic over 2012 at the same location, by direction. ((It’s important to separate the directions of travel because, in essence, these are two different one-way roads. While there are circumstances when it’s necessary and useful to combine the volumes together, for the purposes of looking at the changes in driver behavior, you should not.)) I also included that same bar graphic that shows the percent change by hour. Take a moment and look at that graph and see if you can see what I’m seeing.

According to that graph, in 2013, traffic was lower than 2012. Overall, it was 1% lower southbound and 2% lower northbound. Now, notice the 5:00, 6:00, 7:00 PM hours. See how the 2013 northbound traffic shows a significant decrease compared to 2012? What’s up with that?

No idea. Well, I have some ideas, but they’re just thoughts. I don’t have any real, informational basis to answer that question. We’ll come back to that.

Let me now tell you some more about what you were looking at in the first graph. All I said was I was comparing traffic volumes before and after the tolls came down. But what exactly was I comparing? I could have chosen to compare November against December, but that’s a bad idea for reason I’ll note in the footnotes. ((November and December are tough months for smooth traffic analysis because of the holidays. Nobody is on the road on Thanksgiving day but everybody is on the road the days around it. The shopping season is upon us, and don’t forget there are two regional malls within the “reach” of this part of SR 400. Then Christmas appears. What a mess.)) I could compare the average Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday (etc.) from the previous year to my December, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, but I decided that was too much work. I could compare each particular day (12/1, 12/2, 12/3) to it’s corresponding day the year before, but that won’t work. ((You need to compare similar days, such as 12/1 this year being a Sunday, but last year it was a Saturday, and don’t forget that this year it was the Sunday right after Thanksgiving. Last year it was a week later.)) So, what I did was compare each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday in December of 2013 to its corresponding day in December of 2012 ((See last footnote for the fancy dancing on that comparison.)). Some days had to be thrown out around Christmas. Others don’t exist in the dataset because the quality assurance people at GDOT decided they weren’t good data. Then I did some number crunching with Excel and voila! Graph number 1.

All of these numbers and graphs are interesting and give people something to talk about, but they certainly don’t fill in the little details. For example, I’m comfortable saying that traffic has increased due to the tolls coming down. That was the expected result. However, I’m very interested in why 2013 traffic seems to be lower than 2012. I did not expect that result at all. Since 2007 and the housing bubble bursting, traffic nationwide has gone down and continued that trend, or remained flat, for quite some time, but in the last year or so, it’s started moving back up.

And I’m very very interested in that sharp downturn in PM peak hour traffic that the northbound graph is showing. What’s going on there? Was there construction that reduced the capacity of the roadway? ((If a roadway is at peak capacity, it will show on graphs like these in the peak hour bu not exceeding a certain level and plateauing. Anything that effects the number of vehicles that it is possible to squeeze through the roadway will cause that plateau to rise or fall.)) Did I-285 traffic turning onto SR 400 northbound increase and cause a backup to the south?

Again, I don’t know. What I do know as of right now is that this was a long term event. I’ll have to go back into the data tables to see where the volumes started to tail off and talk to some of the GDOT folks I know to see if there were some construction or other activity that may have caused it.

This sort of data-crunching is extremely useful for seeing long term trends, and short term effects of decisions or construction. It’s also extremely laborious unless you have the systems set up to do the work for you. It’s also easy to twist the results into meaning what you want it to mean, but if you’re a connoisseur of internet information or politics, you probably already know that.

I had fun answering the question of Jenn’s coworker, and was lucky there was an automated count station in the vicinity that I could look at. I got the data from the GDOT Traffic Polling and Analysis System and if you go through the link you’ll see that there aren’t that many full-time automated traffic counters out there. It’s not like there’s one on every road or intersection.

This sort of thing is one of the reasons I enjoy my job as a Traffic Engineer and I’m happy to have had a project to play with on my free time.

This is the smile that melts my heart. It always starts off a bit lopsided and then gets full face.

I’m resigned that every picture I take of Griffin in the next while will have drool in it.

I’m still figuring out how to run my lighting. For reference, these pictures were taken in the reverse order shown.

Griffin is already a handy guy to have around the house. For example, he spent time in his second month of life looking for a good game to give to the family for Christmas. His solution? Superstructure! An Indiegogo-funded game which you can check out at their website.

It’s a competitive game of building things by buying the I-beams, rivets, and columns you need to finish your superstructure while interfering, or downright stealing stuff from other players.

You use cards to do the buying, interfering and stealing, while putting together your own structure.

As your structure grows and you get closer to the final level, other players start to target you with the Foreclosure card, the Strike card, or just steal your stuff.

Eventually you put a roof on your structure and you win!

Or, while playing during a New Years party, you can throw out the building codes and just build something interesting.

All in all, it is a fun game. We’ll drag it out for laughs frequently. I’m glad Griffin went through all the trouble to back the Indiegogo campaign and get us this spectacular Christmas Gift.