Month: September 2010

  • Interesting Statistical Anomaly – Triathlon Race Timing

    I was analyzing the data (well, really I was just processing the data from the ugly text I can rip off the web into something that I can mangle with Excel) from the 2010 Peachtree City Sprint Triathlon and I found some interesting things.

    First off, all props to Event Tech for getting the results posted so quickly1 although it would be nice if I could pull the data down and actually use it with a bit less manual processing. Basically I have to import this…

    Event Tech Website

    …into Excel and do a bunch of manual manipulation to end up with this…

    Excel Times Replacement

    …which for one allows me to sort by time and do various other things.

    However, today I was doing something I hadn’t done before: I summed up the total of the swim/bike/run/T1/T2 times and compared it with the total time that Event Tech had calculated. Interestingly it was generally off. Off by one, two or three seconds.

    Hmmm… fascinating.

    Even more interesting is that it was rarely off by zero seconds.

    I quickly realized that the total time was always equal to or less than the sum of the individual parts which implied to me that the total time was your chip time from the begin timing mat to the end timing mat and that the summation I had conducted was introducing rounding errors of some sort into the equation. After all, if you finish the swim in 10:00.4, your time on the sheet will say “10:00” but that 0.4 seconds still hangs on there and will contribute to your final time.

    However, that doesn’t work. If you assume, as I did, that there are three splits that are introducing rounding errors (three because the maximum error was three seconds) it should be equally likely that the split will round down as up. That would mean there should have been instances where the split times added together were less than the total chip time. This, however, did not exist. Something was going on.

    The next guess was that all splits were rounding up (three splits total). That would account for the sum of the splits being all greater than the total chip time. However, I ran a Monte Carlo simulation and got these results:

    Bin – Frequency
    0 – 21
    1 – 438
    2 – 464
    3 – 21

    Which is an expected distribution if everything is random however if you analyze the results from the race you get:

    Bin – Frequency
    0 – 11
    1 – 266
    2 – 496
    3 – 159

    This is markedly different from a random result. Something is biasing those numbers. The mean of the difference between the rounded times and the summed times for the Monte Carlo simulation is (as expected) approximately 1.5 but the mean of the race results is 1.8.

    At this point I stopped. I could go on theorizing about why the numbers are off in the specific manner they are, but really it’s not that important.

    What does this all mean? Absolutely nothing! As I mentioned above, your race results are your chip time from start to finish, it’s only when I started summing up their broken-out numbers that I noticed anything wonky and decided to geek out on this. I’m confident that my race time is accurate and even if it was not, it was only off by 1, 2 or 3 seconds. If those seconds make or break me, I should have trained harder!

    I will probably send this link to Event Tech and ask if they have any insight; they probably do. It’s their software after all.


    1: 2010 Tri PTC Results, although the white on black background thing should really go, guys. It’s tough on the eyeballs.

  • The Extraordinary Contraptions

    I don’t push these guys (The Extraordinary Contraptions!) just because they’re my friends. I do it because I like they’re music. For proof, I offer Exhibit A. My iTunes library sorted by number of Plays:

    Library sorted by Number of Plays

    Go now and check out their music!

    Or you can look at some recent photos here on flickr. Here’s a good example

    2010-09-02_IMG_1401

  • Conference/Convention Panels: How to not be an Annoying Audience Member

    2010-09-04_IMG_1733

    I’ve attended many conferences and society meetings and luncheons with speakers and seven (eight?) Dragon*Cons to date. I’ve sat in the audience for panels from such diverse topics as Wastewater Management to The Physics of the Buffyverse. These panels invariably have one thing in common, no matter the difference in the subject matter: Annoying Audience Members (AAM)1.

    Before I get into what makes an AAM, I must stipulate a few things:

    • The panel is interesting and does not require derailing for the continued mental health of the audience
    • The panel is an informational panel which features a question and answer session
    • The panel isn’t specifically designed to violate the things I’m about to talk about

    Making those assumptions, I have the following rules for Audience Members in order to avoid becoming an AAM:

    • Do not loudly agree/disagree with the relevant panelist to your neighbor while others are listening. This is common courtesy and should be observed by all persons. It’s especially important when the panel is set in a large room and the panelists are not properly mic’d. Be kind. Shut up
    • During the Question and Answer session please ask a relevant question. The definition of relevant can be divined from the published topic of the panel and from the actual topics being discussed by the panelists. As I just came out of Dragon*Con, I’ll pull examples from some experiences there: If you’re at a panel entitled “Brandon Sanderson talks about Everything” you can ask, well, anything. If the panel instead is “Brandon Sanderson discusses the Wheel of Time” then some of your fellow audience members will become peeved if you insist on asking about his writing process.
    • 2010-09-04_IMG_1742

    • If you’re at an Author Panel, please avoid asking them about their writing process or where they get their inspiration. I’ve polled a lot of people and there’s a 2/3 majority saying this is a stupid question. The only reason to ask it is because you might need some inspiration and there is a 99.9% likelihood that you can’t apply their methods to your art.
    • Never ever ever use the following words: “This is more a comment than a question….” Seriously, half the audience will want to pull out your innards and choke you with them. We’re (excuse me, “they’re”) not there to listen to you.
    • Ask good questions. This one is harder to define because what I define as a good question you might disagree with. However, we can talk about it from a structural perspective. A good question is short, to the point, and easily understood by the panelist. A great question is the same but elicits new information that the rest of the audience might not have heard before. As a personal note (and if you’ve ever attended any sort of panel with me, Dragon*Con or otherwise, you already know this) I like to ask questions but I only ask questions I think are good ones. I also listen to make sure the topic I want to question hasn’t been covered. There are fine shades here but you can get mileage out of old, tired things by applying a bit of thought. Going back to the Brandon Sanderson2 Wheel of Time panel3 the moderator got the usual question (“Who killed Asmodean”) out of the way before the panel even started but I found a twist. “Do you agree with Robert Jordan that we have enough information to know who killed Asmodean?”4 I think that’s a good question. Spend at least a bit of time rehearsing the question in your head and it will come out cogent and relevant.
    • When asking a multipart question, don’t. Single questions, thanks.
    • Going back to the “This is more of a comment…” item, it’s ok to give background to frame the question you’re asking, but refer to the “Ask Good Questions” for some improvement tips.
    • If there is a microphone, use it. If there’s not, project to the room. When using the microphone, stick that thing in your face. The closer it is to your lips, the better. We want to hear you; you might be asking a Good Question.5 Also, it’s not considered rude or inappropriate to spend five seconds adjusting the microphone and stand. This makes it much more comfortable for you.
    • When at professional events, it’s considered courteous to not question the panelist’s competence out loud. Seriously, I’ve heard this happen at engineering conferences. Bad form. Wait ’til afterward. There’s really only two things that can happen if you do this. 1) You’re right, but if it’s obvious that you’re right, there’s no reason to call it to attention. Other people will notice too. 2) You’re wrong and you just made an enormous ass of yourself in front of people who might be in a position to influence your career.

    Generally all these tips can be boiled down to: Be courteous, be relevant, and be there for the panel, not for you. If you choose to not follow these pointers, I assure you I remember the people I feel are wasting my time and the panelists’. Others do too.


    1: About half of them will have the Annoying Panel Member, but that’s another topic
    2: Brandon Sanderson is the author of Elantris, the Mistborn Trilogy, Warbreaker, The Way of Kings, and is now best known for being the author selected to finish Robert Jordan’s Wheel of Time Series.
    3: Which was awesome. He read from the Prologue to the next book, The Towers of Midnight and we got to watch this!
    4: If you want to know the history go here. His answer? Long and complicated but I interpreted it as “No.”
    5: This has a corollary for panelists: repeat the question. When I’m in front of an audience with a microphone, I always repeat the question. This serves two purposes: everyone can hear it and the questioner knows if you’re interpreting the question correctly.

  • A Story In Three Parts

    Part the First

    Part the Second

    Part the Third

    I’m most amused by the fact that Jenn obviously snuck in and turned on the closet light. I didn’t notice until I was cropping the images.

  • Happy Equinox!

    Cosmic Sandwich

    Happy Autumnal Equinox! Congratulations on making it 1/4 of the way around the Sun (from my arbitrarily determined start point). This is, of course, our free annual trip that includes not one, but two stopovers at the celestial equator. Well, I should say it includes two points at which the Sun crosses the celestial equator, these points in time being known as the equinoxes.

    Today’s equinox occurs at 0309 UTC (that’s tomorrow in England) otherwise known as 11:09 PM Eastern Daylight Time. So if you’re up at that time, or whatever time it happens to be in your particular time zone, stand an egg on its end and celebrate our orbital parameters.

  • Birthday Present

    My oldest sister Cindy gave me a nice birthday present this year. It’s a glass bowl made locally to her in northern California, entirely from recycled glass.

    Birthday Present

    Pretty, isn’t it? It’s weighty and would serve excellently as a bludgeon during the zombie apocalypse. However, I knew instantly what it was for as soon as I opened the box.

    Birthday Present put to Use

    I love me some spice drops.

  • Open Letter to the Hyatt Regency Atlanta

    September 16, 2010

    Hyatt Regency Atlanta
    265 Peachtree Street NE,
    Atlanta, Georgia, USA 30303

    To whom it may concern:

    Greetings! I am writing today for two reasons. First and most importantly to thank you for being a wonderful host institution for Dragon*Con. Those of us who are perennial attendees at this signature event appreciate the effort you undertake to make us feel welcome. I realize it must be trying to have a hotel packed with Wookies, Klingons, Slave Leias (well, maybe not the Leias), and all the shenanigans surrounding Dragon*Con, so thank you for being a wonderful host.

    This year was my first staying in your property. I enjoyed the experience, except for the four or five times I had to climb to the eleventh floor (which is a known issue with the Dragon*Con weekend). The rooms I stayed in was pleasant with plenty of space and I appreciated the city views outside on the balcony. If I had one criticism of the room it was the lack of counter space in the bathroom, but that’s something we managed to deal with.

    Also, I found the hotel staff to be courteous, professional and prompt once I got their attention. This brings me to crux of the matter that I’m writing about.

    On Monday when I was checking out, I decided to use the Bell Hop service to transport my numerous bags to the car I had parked in your facility. I called up the bell service desk at 11:10 or so and was informed I had a 45 minute wait. I could deal with that so I sat back and watched Dragon*Con TV on the hotel television. At 12:30 I rang the bell service desk to make sure I hadn’t been misplaced or forgotten. At that time I was informed of a 10 minute wait. At 1:15 I called again and demanded an honest, accurate assessment of my wait time before a Bell Hop would arrive. I was again informed 10 minutes and I’m happy to say that a bell hop arrived in nine. Total wait time was approximately two hours and ten minutes.

    This is a problem for two reasons: Inaccurate reporting of wait time and time that I could have been spending with the eight people I brought in from out of town to spend money in your hotel and Atlanta generally. I was highly resentful of the wasted time I could have been spending with my friends as opposed to waiting for a Bell Hop. I have two suggested solutions for you

    1. Accurately report what the wait times are going to be. I would have had no problem if you’d told me “two hours” when I made my initial call. I could have gathered some people to help me cart luggage to the garage.
    2. Add staff for the known huge outflux of patrons on days such as Dragon*Con checkout

    The first solution is the one I’d prefer. If you are honest with your patrons who are farther down the Bell Hop list, we’ll respect you for it and be able to plan our days accordingly. Otherwise our very last experience with your establishment will be a negative one, which will color our perceptions of the visit.

    Thank you again for being an excellent host hotel for Dragon*Con. I look forward to patronizing your establishment next year

    Bill Ruhsam
    Marietta, GA